Thursday, December 22, 2016

The Electoral College is not the problem: a lesson that Americans could learn from parliamentary democracies.

Hillary won the majority of vote, Donald won the presidency - the losing side attacks the electoral college, the winners defend it. It is hard to avoid the impression that these views have more to do with the momentous political preferences than with intellectual honesty. Indeed, although the electoral college might be a quirk of American history, it would be hard to argue that it is somehow inferior or unfair as compared with the proportional system. In fact, once we start talking about "fairness", it becomes a philosophical debate which may not have a unique solution and in which Republicans and Democrats will certainly never agree.
The debate about the electoral college however distracts from seeing the elephant in the room - the deep polarization of political views and the reluctance of Americans to listen to each other. One could even argue that such polarization tends to produce disputable outcomes across all possible electoral systems. Let us look at how this problem plays out in parliamentary democracies, which might at first seem very different from the US system.

Weak governments
It is not uncommon in multi-party parliamentary democracies that a party wins most vote in the elections, but not enough to have the majority in the parliament. In absence of ideologically close coalition partners this party may fail to form the government.^1 In other cases the president (or Queen/King) has to pick the prime minister from the party that might not have won the majority of vote but has more chance to form a viable coalition.^2

Some countries allow for a "weak government" (or "minority government") - when the winning party rules, relying on attracting a few allies from opposition parties on case-by-case basis in order to pass the laws. This kind of deadlock is familiar to Americans by the recent standoff between President Obama and the "do nothing" Congress.

The power of dwarfs
When several parties do succeed in forming a majority coalition, the larger coalition partner often turns out to be a hostage of smaller parties, which may refuse to vote along with the coalition or even threaten to leave it, thus bringing down the government.^3 Again, those Americans who follow the politics, have a pretty good idea about the power of the few senator needed to overcome the filibuster, or that single judge in the Supreme court. 

Doubtful remedies
These problems have produced the debates that are rather similar to the debate about the electoral college in the US. One possible remedy is giving a "bonus" to the most successful party in the elections, guaranteeing it majority in the parliament. It certainly makes easier for this party to pass the laws, but simply because this party is given here more power to impose its will on the rest.^4 The situation is familiar to the Americans by the debate about the limits of the president's executive action, recess appointments, etc.

Another approach is raising the threshold for parties to enter the parliament, making it more difficult for small parties to qualify.^5 Both solutions have been criticized as undemocratic.^6
Local elections vs. popular vote
Perhaps less noticeable, but more serious issue is how the parliament is elected: in some countries it is formed from locally elected candidates, who happen to belong to a particular party, whereas in others voters vote directly for the party. When thinking about Congressional elections Americans may feel that they are more used to the former system, which provides fair representation to all communities/regions, just like the senators and congressmen in the US. But in parliamentary democracies this system also has all the shortcomings of the electoral college.
Some countries opt for a combination of the two approaches, not unlike the US, where each state elects two senators but a variable number of congressmen.
To summarize: I tried to show that the political problems in the US are not specific to the US electoral system. More generally, I believe that politics is more about ideas, compromises and diplomacy than about technicalities of the elections.

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Examples:
^1 Belgium has set the record by remaining without a government for 589 days
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/answer-sheet/wp/2013/10/01/589-days-with-no-elected-government-what-happened-in-belgium/?utm_term=.e6f1923b4607
^2 Israeli election of 2009 is a good example, featuring both the inability of the biggest party to form a coalition, as well as the later coalition formed around the second biggest party.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_legislative_election,_2009
^3 European Union joint decision-making provides multiple examples to this end, e.g. when a single Belgian region was blocking the CETA agreement.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37749236
^4 The idea of such a "bonus" was rejected by Italians in a recent referendum
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/05/world/europe/italy-matteo-renzi-vote.html?_r=0
^5 Angela Merkel's robust party has been plagued for years by inability of its smaller allies to qualify for the seats in the German parliament, putting at risk Ms Merkel's chancellorship
^6 Turkish voting system is an example here
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/01/turkey-the-worlds-most-unfair-election-system

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

On Trump-Hitler comparisons

It is perhaps a bit too late, but I would like to lay to rest the Trump-Nazi comparisons. In my opinion they are superficially based on comparing rhetoric and personality traits, and miss the essential points. At best they are misleading, at worst - they are offensive to those who indeed suffered under dictatorial or totalitarian regimes.

1. People often confuse dictatorship with totalitarianism. Dictatorship is about one person controlling all power branches, whereas totalitarianism is about re-building society according to a different model - it is about ideas that surpass a single person. Nazism, fascism and communism are all totalitarian ideologies which continue to attract people well after their founders died. Hitler, Lenin, Mao and others took a great deal of effort to summarize their ideologies in their written works, where they openly expressed their disrespect for the "rotten" social democracy and described the methods for dismantling it. Trump has no ideology, it is all about himself. So any comparisons with Nazism are simply invalid.

2. Hitler didn't win elections. His party didn't have majority in parliament even after several election cycles. He came to power through a crack in a democratic system - he was appointed the chancellor because of a constitutional crisis, i.e. when government could not be formed democratically.

3. Hitler didn't get total power just because he became a chancellor. He also had his people appointed to key ministries, police etc. And it took them many years to dismantle democratic mechanisms. To be a dictator, Trump would have to have a majority in Congress and Senate, loyal supreme court, his people in FBI and CIA, etc. Until recently the Republicans complained that assassination of US citizens, going to war with congressional authorization, and executive action erode US democracy - they have a valid point here. One could also add the NSA total spying program - a necessary tool, if one wanted to eliminate political opponents.

In short, if I had to bet on one of the two candidates becoming a US dictator, I wouldn't bet on Trump. Which, of course, doesn't make him a good candidate.

Friday, November 4, 2016

Political neurosis. (Or how to vote for Hillary and remain sane.)

Summary: Voting for Hillary is your right, and one could even make a logical case for it. One could disagree with such a choice, but it is a choice to be respected. On the other hand, ignoring Hillary's faults, attributing to her non-existing competences, and framing your support for her as something grounded in high moral values are a different story. And it says more about you than about her.
There are many people who would like to believe that Hillary is good and that Trump is evil, and that the good always wins. And if you are one of them, then there is nothing easier than surrounding yourself with like-minded people and reading only Hillary-friendly media, i.e. living in a comfortable emphatic bubble.
Except if you are too intelligent to dismiss the evidence that Hillary is far from an angel. And that the world is far from being a good place, and people are being exploited and murdered every day to guarantee your rather comfortable way of life. (I could give you here a long list of Hillary's faults. However, if you need such a list, then you probably belong to the previous paragraph.)
But then you may not have enough courage to accept that the world is such a nasty and scary place. And you want to explain it away: by arguing with those who disagree with you, by ignoring the Hillary's faults and by trying to prove that even doubting her virtues paves the way for unimaginable horrors to come. In short, you try to convince yourself that the world is not what it is, but what you want it to be.

Isn't this the very textbook definition of neurosis? Yes. And we know that it doesn't matter how much you argue and even if you manage to convince someone - your anxiety will remain. Because the ultimate person that you have to convince is yourself - and, as we have already assumed, you are too intelligent and informed to ignore the truth. The reality will not change - the only thing that can change is you. Mastering courage is the only path to mental health.
P.S. Bonus: not only will it make you feel better, but it will also make you look smarter!
P.P.S. The bad news: you may still have to deal with hundreds of less courageous people around you...

Monday, October 10, 2016

Russian's guide to western naiveté: Belief in a good Tsar



A Facebook friend mentioned today that Russians often see westerners as naive in political matters. This is a very rich subject, and I hope that I will have inspiration to write more about it in the future. For now I limit myself to only one aspect.
Proposition: Westerners believe that honest politicians exist and that the politics in their countries is done honestly.
This is something that Russians refer to as a "belief in the good Tsar" ("Вера в доброго царя.") The story behind this is that Russians for centuries held a belief in a loving and caring Tsar, attributing their privations and poverty to the abuse by the government officials, who supposedly disobeyed their sovereign. Thus, if only the Tsar could be made aware of the Russian people's desperate situation, things could be straightened out: the Tsar would punish crooked officials and reward hardworking and honest people.
The expression is used nowadays as derogatory to describe those seeking solutions in changing political personalities while leaving in place the system that encourages the abuse. That is, the root of the problem in pre-revolutionary Russia was not corrupted officials standing between the Tsar and the Russian people, but the autocratic system that inevitably produces such a situation.
Most Russians nowadays are likely to believe that "all politicians are crooks" - something that westerners know as "power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Yet, very few of my European or American friends seem to think that this maxim applies to their countries and/or their favorite politicians, which makes me think of them as naive. (Yes, I mean people like Barack Obama, Justin Trudeau, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, etc. - no political personality is holy for a disgruntled Russian. More about this in a minute.)
So, let me provide you with a bit of a practical advice: if you happen to discuss politics with a Russian, don't start with an emphatic proposition, such as "George Bush is a war criminal./Obama is very smart./Trump is a bigot./Hillary Clinton is competent." Instead of showing empathy, the Russian may ask you: "WHY DO YOU THINK SO?" and you will be in an unenviable position of having to provide logical reasoning for your feelings.
OR they may come hard at you with a bunch of facts demonstrating that your statement is wrong. This doesn't mean that they side with the other political side, but simply that they read newspapers and they judge your statement as technically incorrect. Alas, the maxim "Plato is my friend but truth is a better friend" still matters for Russians. ("Платон мне друг, но истина дороже."/"Amicus Plato, sed magis amica veritas")
OR they may say nothing. And this is the worst thing, because they probably think that you are too naive/ignorant/stupid to take seriously.

Instead, try another approach. For example, explain why you think that the US should continue spending money on defending South Korea and Japan, and why you think that leaving these countries to defend themselves and allowing them to develop their own nuclear weapons is a bad idea. Don't forget to mention pros and cons. The Russians may not agree with you but they will think you are thinking. And intelligence is something that they respect more than political correctness: "He is rude, but he is a good person" ("Он хам, но человек хороший.")