Back to the Future

I argued in one of my earlier posts that the Arab-Israeli conflict might be over
- it has been superseded by the Iranian vs. Israel+'moderate Arab states' confrontation. Therefore the Palestinian issue will gradually lose it importance as some of the Arab countries will drift toward Israel.

Perhaps, it will develop according to the European scenario a hundred years ago, when, after hundreds (!) of years of bloody wars, England and France concluded entente against Germany and then instigated the war which resulted in the fall of most of the European monarchies. In the case of Europe this took about a hundred years (between Napoleonic wars and the World War 1), and one may expect that similar developments in the Middle East will take some 50-100 years.

However, creation of one more artificial state in the Middle East (i.e. the Palestinian State) is unlikely to affect this dynamics in a positive way. Particularly so, because at the moment there are all reasons to think that this will be a totalitarian state (Mr. Abbas, negotiating the peace treaty, is currently in the 72nd month of his 48 month term. He is quite unpopular and keeps his hold to power by means of arresting his political opponents, which are themselves no better.)

What Palestinians really need is a plan for economic development, which will allow them in future integrate into the Palestinian Republic of Jordan)) Whether the Palestinian state will be created or not, the reunification of the Palestinians in future is as certain as the reunification of West and East Germany was, and this means collapse of the Jordanian monarchy.

Of course, this scenario is based on two assumptions which are at odds with the official position of the US State Department:
1)the Iran-Israel+ conflict is already defining the Middle East politics;
2)Arab dictatorships and monarchies are even less sustainable than the Israeli occupation of the territories. (The King of Jordan is particularly concerned, this is why he is acutely interested in the two state solution - this is the only way to postpone the fall of the Jordanian monarchy.)