Wag the EU (Synopsis of a movie)

“Why does the dog wag its tail?

Because the dog is smarter than the tail.

If the tail were smarter, it would wag the dog.”

“Wag the Dog”, a movie

The former Soviet republic of Ukraine has log been a place of geopolitical struggle between the United States and the European Union on the one hand, and Russia on the other.

The US has no deeply invested interests in Ukraine, but would like to steer it in the western direction as a part of an effort to sustain its own world dominance. Russia is trying to expand its political and economic influence in order to regain its status as the world power. The EU, although less politically ambitious than the US, is hoping to get access to the Ukrainian market in order to spur its own economic growth, stalled in the wake of the ongoing financial crisis. To this end the EU has engaged Ukraine in the negotiations about the latter becoming a part of the common European market in exchange for potential future integration in the Union.

The Ukrainian people are divided about the issue: while some of them feel excited about the western way of life, the others fear that joining the EU will entail the collapse of the Ukrainian industries, plunging their country into poverty and lawlessness not seen since the early years after the fall of the Soviet Union.

Y., the Ukrainian president elected by his people for the lack of any better alternatives, cares only about his own political survival. He knows that, partially due to his mismanagement, the country is on the brink of declaring a default. Understanding that the EU, burdened by its own economic problems, is unable to help, he walks out of the negotiations in favor of a generous economic aid package offered by Russia.

The Y.’s sudden change of mind triggers public protests in the Ukrainian capital. Experienced American diplomat, V. N., wants to use the protests to replace the Ukrainian president by a more pro-western figure. This effort nearly collapses at the very start when a phone conversation, in which she frankly discusses her interference into the Ukrainian politics, becomes public. The situation is saved by the European leaders, who manage to shift the focus of public attention by blowing out of proportion their indignation about the foul language that V.N. used in respect to the EU.

The Ukrainian opposition however seems to be unable to force Y. to step down. Its leaders turn to the US, asking it to impose sanctions on the Ukrainian president and his circle – the demand which the US, as a western democracy, cannot fulfill. “We are not the USSR, we cannot impose sanctions just because we don’t like the guy,” – reluctantly explains V.N. to the disappointed opposition delegation.

To help the Ukrainian opposition V.N. engages Tough Guy, a former marine and the creator of one of the world biggest social networks. T.G. has earned the trust of V.N. during his fruitful collaboration with the National Security Agency. Now she suggests him a more challenging mission – going to Ukraine and building a pretext for imposing the sanctions on the Ukrainian government.

T.G.’s efforts in Ukraine first fall flat when he encounters the Ukrainian opposition leaders’s naïve belief in honest and peaceful resolution of the political standoff. One of them, a dim-witted former boxing champion, pathetically declares: “No western ideal is worth sacrificing Ukrainian people’s lives.”

In desperation, T.G. turns to an extremist right-wing leader, X. In exchange for a hefty sum of US dollars X. promises to “take the protests a bit further”.

The next day the protests erupt into violence which leaves a few dozen of Ukrainians dead. The fact that the numbers of killed protesters and Ukrainian policemen are approximately equal raises many doubts about what exactly happened. But with the help of a charming Ukrainian opposition activist, Oksana, T.G. launches a campaign on social networks convincing the world that the killings were deliberately perpetrated by the Y.’s security forces.

The next day the US and the EU declare the use of force against peaceful protestors unacceptable and impose the sanctions against the Ukrainian government, whereas Russia promises to help Y. to restore the rule of law in his country...

The last frame of the movie shows a social network page commemorating those who died for better Ukraine.

Disclaimer: the account presented here is fictional, although loosely based on real names and events.